Prices of fuels in heat production
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Question
What are prices of fuel used in heat production in own heating systems in apartments and in plants in Finland?
Answer

An example code for fetching and running the ovariable.
Rationale
This page contains prices for electricity, district heating, liquid fuels and consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and domestic fuels in heat production in Finland. all data is based on knowledge of Statistics Finland In the end of data section there will be also data for maintenance and investment costs!!
This code calculates the price of fuels including tax.
Prices of fuels without tax
A previous version was based on several info sources [1]. However, this resulted in inconsistent prices between fuels. Now the table is simplified and made more robust using IEA estimates VTT-R-03704-14_YDINPAP_(1) page 8, with the cost of accuracy. There should be an expert panel discussing the interdependencies of fuel prices to get the correct order.
Obs | Fuel | 1985 | 1995 | 2005 | 2015 | 2025 | 2035 | 2045 | 2055 | 2065 | Description |
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1 | Coal | 8.5 | 9.41 | 13.78 | 20 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | |
2 | Gas | 9.1 | 11.6 | 16.2 | 42.9 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | |
3 | Natural gas | 9.1 | 11.6 | 16.2 | 42.9 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | Same as gas. |
4 | Oil | 14.3 | 25 | 32 | 52 | 54 | 61 | 68 | 75 | 82 | |
5 | Crude oil | 14.3 | 25 | 32 | 52 | 54 | 61 | 68 | 75 | 82 | Same as oil. |
6 | Fuel oil | 14.3 | 25 | 32 | 52 | 54 | 61 | 68 | 75 | 82 | Same as oil. |
7 | Heavy oil | 14.3 | 25 | 32 | 52 | 54 | 61 | 68 | 75 | 82 | Same as oil. |
8 | Light oil | 16 | 28 | 35 | 55 | 57 | 64 | 72 | 79 | 86 | Slightly higher than oil. |
9 | Bio | 9 | 10 | 11 | 21 | 28 | 35 | 45 | 57 | 76 | |
10 | Biofuel | 9 | 10 | 11 | 21 | 28 | 35 | 45 | 57 | 65 | Same as bio. |
11 | Peat | 6.6 | 8 | 9.8 | 17 | 21 | 28 | 35 | 45 | 50 | |
12 | Electricity | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 42 | 55 | 58 | 60 | 65 | |
13 | Heat | 30.8 | 30.8 | 40.4 | 53.99 | 63 | 63 | 65 | 65 | 68 | |
14 | Cooling | 30.8 | 30.8 | 40.4 | 53.99 | 63 | 63 | 65 | 65 | 68 | Same as heat |
All prices are in 2015 euros.
Coal, Gas/Natural Gas, Light oil and Bio/Biofuel and Peat data from Statistics Finland[1]. Bio/Biofuel stands for wood chips.
Oil prices from U.S. Energy Information Administration[2]. All values converted first to 2015 dollars (inflation correction) and then to 2015 euros using the current (21.7.2015) exchange ratio of 1 $ = 0.923 €. Price per barrel then converted to price per MWh presuming that the energy released by burning one barrel is about 5.8 x 106 BTU = 1.7 MWh, U.S. Internal Revenue Service[3].
Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) for Coal, Gas/Natural Gas, Oil, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Heavy oil and Light oil from U.S. Energy Information Administration's "Annual Energy Outlook 2015 with projections to 2040" [4]. CAGR for Bio/Biofuel and Peat estimated to be 2 %, based on the price history.
District heating data is based on the price for an apartment building (volume 10 000 m3, energy need 450 MWh/a). Data from Statistics Finland [3]. We assume that the price of district cooling is the same (although district cooling has been available only for a few years).
Uncertainties are assumed in the same way for all fuels: a certain percentage up and down from the best estimate, varying by year. The following uncertainties were used: 2025 5 %, 2035 10 %, 2045 15 %, 2055 20 %, 2065 30 %. It should be noted that uncertainties are different for different fuels, but we were unable to estimate fuel-specific uncertainties.
Taxes for different fuels
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Taxes and fees from | Petrol (snt/l) | Diesel (snt/l) | Light fuel oil (snt/l) | Heavy fuel oil (snt/kg) | Coal (€/t) | Natural gas (€/MWh) | Peat (€/MWh) | |
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1.1.1990 | 21,53 | 16,82 | 0,34 | 0,34 | 2,69 | 0,17 | 0,34 | |
1.1.1991 | 26,57 | 17,49 | 0,35 | 0,35 | 2,83 | 0,18 | 0,35 | |
1.1.1992 | 28,26 | 17,49 | 0,35 | 0,35 | 2,83 | 0,18 | 0,35 | |
1.8.1992 | 31,62 | 17,49 | 0,35 | 0,35 | 2,83 | 0,18 | 0,35 | |
1.1.1993 | 39,52 | 19,17 | 1,41 | 1,12 | 5,61 | 0,35 | 0,70 | |
1.7.1993 | 39,52 | 16,65 | 1,41 | 1,12 | 5,61 | 0,35 | 0,70 | |
1.1.1994 | 40,05 | 17,29 | 2,05 | 1,98 | 11,30 | 1,09 | 0,35 | |
1.1.1995 | 45,12 | 27,50 | 3,02 | 3,12 | 19,53 | 0,94 | 0,59 | |
1.1.1996 | 51,85 | 27,50 | 3,02 | 3,12 | 19,53 | 0,94 | 0,59 | |
1.1.1997 | 51,85 | 27,50 | 4,88 | 3,72 | 28,42 | 1,19 | 0,71 | |
1.4.1997 | 51,85 | 27,50 | 4,88 | 3,72 | 28,42 | 1,19 | 0,71 | |
1.1.1998 | 55,22 | 30,02 | 5,50 | 4,34 | 33,40 | 1,40 | 0,82 | |
1.9.1998 | 55,22 | 30,02 | 6,37 | 5,40 | 41,37 | 1,73 | 1,51 | |
1.1.2003 | 58,08 | 31,59 | 6,71 | 5,68 | 43,52 | 1,82 | 1,59 | |
1.7.2005 | 58,08 | 31,59 | 6,71 | 5,68 | 43,52 | 1,82 | - | |
1.1.2007 | 58,08 | 31,59 | 6,71 | 5,68 | 43,52 | 1,82 | - | |
1.1.2008 | 62,02 | 36,05 | 8,35 | 6,42 | 49,32 | 2,016 | - | |
1.1.2011 | 62,02 | 36,05 | 15,70 | 18,51 | 126,91 | 8,94 | 1,90 | |
1.1.2012 | 64,36 | 46,60 | 15,70 | 18,51 | 126,91 | 8,940 | 1,90 | |
1.1.2013 | 64,36 | 46,60 | 15,99 | 18,93 | 131,53 | 11,38 | 4,90 | |
1.1.2014 | 66,61 | 49,31 | 15,99 | 18,93 | 131,53 | 11,38 | 4,90 | |
1.1.2015 | 66,61 | 49,31 | 15,99 | 18,93 | 153,24 | 15,36 | 3,40 | |
Energy content tax | ||||||||
1.1.2011 | 50,36 | - | 7,70 | 8,79 | 54,54 | 3,00 | - | |
1.1.2012 | 50,36 | 30,70 | 7,70 | 8,79 | 54,54 | 3,00 | - | |
1.1.2013 | 50,36 | 30,70 | 6,65 | 7,59 | 47,10 | 4,45 | - | |
1.1.2015 | 50,36 | 30,70 | 6,65 | 7,59 | 47,10 | 6,65 | - | |
Carbondioxide tax | ||||||||
1.1.2011 | 11,66 | - | 8,00 | 9,72 | 72,37 | 5,94 | - | |
1.1.2012 | 14,00 | 15,90 | 8,00 | 9,72 | 72,37 | 5,94 | - | |
1.1.2013 | 14,00 | 15,90 | 9,34 | 11,34 | 84,43 | 6,93 | - | |
1.1.2014 | 16,25 | 18,61 | 9,34 | 11,34 | 84,43 | 6,93 | - | |
1.1.2015 | 16,25 | 18,61 | 9,34 | 11,34 | 106,14 | 8,71 | - | |
Energy tax | ||||||||
1.1.2011 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1,90 | |
1.1.2013 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4,90 | |
1.1.2014 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4,90 | |
1.1.2015 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3,40 | |
Maintenance and supply sercurity fees | ||||||||
1.7.1984 | 0,72 | 0,39 | 0,39 | 0,32 | 1,48 | - | - | |
1.1.1997 | 0,68 | 0,35 | 0,35 | 0,28 | 1,18 | 0,084 | - | |
Oil pollution fees | ||||||||
1.1.1990 | 0,28 | 0,031 | 0,031 | 0,037 | - | - | - | |
1.1.2005 | 0,038 | 0,042 | 0,042 | 0,050 | - | - | - | |
1.1.2010 | 0,113 | 0,126 | 0,126 | 0,150 | - | - | - |
Data not used
This section contains data that is important but not relevant to the model's calculations, so they were never used in the calculations. This includes the price of district heating, types of energy consumer by building and prices of electricity and more accurate data of the prices fuels over the past years.
Linear Programming for the Malmquist Productivity Growth Index [4] is a method to make uncertain prediction into the future based on existing trend data. ----#: . Maybe this should be used for fuel price predictions. --Jouni (talk) 12:15, 10 November 2015 (UTC) (type: truth; paradigms: science: comment)
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Unit
€/MWh
Summary
All results are averages of year 2009
Price of district heating by type of consumer (€/MWh)
Type of Consumer | |||||
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Detached house | Semidetached house (rivitalo) | Apartment building, small | Apartment building | Apartment building, large | |
Year 2009 av. | 65.58 | 61.21 | 60.28 | 58.27 | 55.85 |
Price of electricity (c/kWh)
Household | Electric Heating | |||
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Flat | Detached House | Direct | Accumulating | |
Year 2009 av. | 14.81 | 12.52 | 10.25 | 9.51 |
Prices of domestic fuel
Hard Coal | Natural Gas | Milled peat | Sod Peat | Forest Chips | Wood pellet | ||||
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On the Coast | Delivered | Delivered | Delivered | Consumer price (incl. VAT) | Index | ||||
€/t | €/MWh | €/1000 m3 (0° C) | €/MWh | €/MWh | €/MWh | €/MWh | c/kWh | 2005=100 | |
Year 2009 av. | 111.73 | 15.78 | 270.65 | 27.07 | 10.55 | 13.44 | 17.75 | 5.15 | 162.87 |
Price of liquid fuel
Light fuel oil | Heavy fuel oil | |||
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c/l | €/MWh | c/kg | €/MWh | |
Year 2009 av. | 59.9 | 59.7 | 46.6 | 40.8 |
See also
- BIOHER assessment
- CLAIH assessment
- International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook
- U.K. Department of Energy and Climate Change, Analytical projections on energy prices
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Analysis & Projections
References
- ↑ Tilastokeskus (Statistics Finland). List of tables under the topic "Price of energy". http://pxweb2.stat.fi/database/statfin/ene/ehi/ehi_fi.asp
- ↑ U.S. Energy Information Administration: Spot prices for crude oil and petroleum products. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_PRI_SPT_S1_A.htm
- ↑ Internal revenue service: Nonconventional Source Fuel Credit, Inflation Adjustment Factor, and Reference Price http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-99-18.pdf
- ↑ U.S. Energy Information Administration: Annual Energy Outlook 2015 - With Projections to 2040. 2015. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2015).pdf
- ↑ Tilastokeskus (Statistics Finland): Energian hinnat 2015, 1. vuosineljännes. (Energy prices 2015, 1. quarter) http://tilastokeskus.fi/til/ehi/2015/01/
- ↑ Recarbonised Finnish Energy System, Christian Breyer, Michael Child