ERF of ambient temperature on mortality: Difference between revisions

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== Scope ==
== Scope ==

Revision as of 08:33, 23 July 2010


Scope

What is the exposure-response function (ERF) of ambient temperature on mortality in Europe measured as % difference in summer (April-September) mortality per degree (Max Apparent Temperature) above the heat threshold (95% confidence intervals).

Definition

Data

  • Following WP3.7-work and WP4.3-screening, DRF will be based on the PHEWE project, which investigated the acute health effects of weather in 15 European cities and provided both pooled estimates (Mediterranean region and North-Continental region) of the impact of heat on mortality (Michelozzi et al. 2007; Baccini et al. 2008). DRFs are based on a linear threshold model. Heat exposure is defined as follows: °C Daily maximum Apparent Temperature over threshold temperature, warm season (April-September).
  • DRF available for: mortality due to natural causes, CVD mortality and RESP morality.
  • Assumption: Threshold and the DRF differ for the Mediterranean region and the North-continental region; we therefore assume that the EU-27 can be divided into two larger regions with different DRF.
  • Assumption: Temperatures above thresholds will only occur in warm season (April-September)
  • Assumption: DRF for mortality due to natural causes can be applied to total mortality

Unit

%/°C

Result

Table[1]

Mediterranean pooled estimate North-continental pooled estimate
Heat threshold 29.4 (25.7-32.4) 23.3 (22.5-24.0)
Age Natural mortality
15-64 0.92 (-1.92, 3.13) 1.31 (-0.94. 3.72)
65-74 2.13 (-0.42, 4.74) 1.65 (-0.5, 3.87)
75+ 4.22 (1.33, 7.20) 2.07 (0.24, 3.89)
All ages 3.12 (0.60, 5.72) 1.84 (0.06, 3.64)
Age Cardiovascular mortality
15-64 0.57 (-2.47 to 3.83) 1.04 (_2.20 to 4.92)
65-74 1.92 (-1.49 to 5.35) 1.50 (1.12 to 4.62)
75+ 4.66 (1.13 to 8.18) 2.55 (0.24 to 5.51)
All ages 3.70 (0.36 to 7.04) 2.44 (0.09 to 5.32)
Age Respiratory mortality
15-64 1.54 (-3.68 to 7.22) 3.02 (-1.55 to 7.42)
65-74 3.37 (-1.46 to 8.22) 3.90 (-0.16 to 8.92)
75+ 8.10 (3.24 to 13.37) 6.62 (3.04 to 11.42))
All ages 6.71 (2.43 to 11.26) 6.10 (2.46 to 11.08)

See also

References

  1. ↑ Baccini et al 2008 Epidemiology, vol 19, number 5, pp. 711-719
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