|
|
| Line 23: |
Line 23: |
| == Causal chain diagram == | | == Causal chain diagram == |
|
| |
|
| (The graph currently onlöy covers the variables upstream from ''climate'' variable) | | (The graph currently only covers the variables upstream from ''climate'' variable) |
|
| |
|
| [[Image:Climate_variable_chart.PNG]] | | [[Image:Climate_variable_chart.PNG]] |
Revision as of 07:52, 17 November 2006
This page contains a description of causes and effects of what is commonly referred to as climate using the Pyrkilo method. The data used in this assessment is composed of 10 climate change related articles by 10 invited experts published in Helsingin Sanomat during Summer 2006.
The description currently only includes the variables that are upstream from climate variable.
The downstream-side of the description will be added later.
Focus of the description
- Base-level focus: to describe the causes and effects of climate as a compilation of the contributions of the 10 writers
- Meta-level focus: to try the applicability of pyrkilo method for describing such a complex issue as a net of variables
Scope of the description
All input from all of the 10 writers are accepted as contributions. In addition, the moderator of the exercise has the right to include additonal material where needed to make implicit issues explicit, to fill in important gaps if they shall exist and to make the overall description coherent.
- The spatial scope is primarily global, but some phenomena are also considered on regional and local scopes as well
- The temporal scope of different variables by different contributors varies approximately within the orders of 101 to 105 years
- All causes and effects of climate change mentioned in the articles are considered
Moderator
Mikko Pohjola --Mikko
Causal chain diagram
(The graph currently only covers the variables upstream from climate variable)
Variable descriptions
Solar activity
Solar activity
| Focus:
|
The radiation output of sun
|
| Scope:
|
Variations in the output happen in the scope of approximately 101 years. As a source of energy, sun can be considered as continuous within the scope of the whole assessment.
|
| Description:
|
|
| Inputs:
|
|
| Index:
|
|
| Definition:
|
|
| Unit:
|
|
| Result:
|
|
| References:
|
Contributors:
- Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
- Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat x.x.2006
|
Earth's positioning in relation to sun
Earth's positioning in relation to sun
| Focus:
|
The distance from sun and alignment of Earth
|
| Scope:
|
Temporally in the order of 104-105 years
|
| Description:
|
Based on Milankovich's astronomical theory of climate change, complemented with orbital inclination.
|
| Inputs:
|
|
| Index:
|
Dimensions:
- Orbital shape
- Axial tilt
- Axial orientation
- Orbital inclination
|
| Definition:
|
|
| Unit:
|
|
| Result:
|
|
| References:
|
Contributors and other sources of information:
|
Solar energy input
Energy input
| Focus:
|
The amount of energy as solar radiation that enters the Earth's climatic system
|
| Scope:
|
Global spatiotemporal distribution
|
| Description:
|
|
| Inputs:
|
Input variables:
|
| Index:
|
|
| Definition:
|
|
| Unit:
|
|
| Result:
|
|
| References:
|
Contributors:
- Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
|
Volcanic activity
Volcanic activity
| Focus:
|
The heat producing processes that take place inside the Earth's core
|
| Scope:
|
|
| Description:
|
|
| Inputs:
|
|
| Index:
|
Dimensions:
- Volcano eruptions
- Movement of tectonic plates
|
| Definition:
|
|
| Unit:
|
|
| Result:
|
|
| References:
|
Contributors:
- Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
- Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat x.x.2006
|
Earth surface
Earth surface
| Focus:
|
Composition of the surface layer of the Earth
|
| Scope:
|
Distribution of land and water areas, vertical variation of the land areas, distribution of biota on the land areas and in the water areas.
|
| Description:
|
|
| Inputs:
|
Input variables:
|
| Index:
|
Dimensions:
|
| Definition:
|
|
| Unit:
|
|
| Result:
|
|
| References:
|
Contributors:
- Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
- Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Heslingin Sanomat 3.7.2006
|
Weathering
Weathering
| Focus:
|
The slow erosion of rocks
|
| Scope:
|
|
| Description:
|
The weathering slowly decreases the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.
|
| Inputs:
|
Input variables:
|
| Index:
|
|
| Definition:
|
|
| Unit:
|
|
| Result:
|
|
| References:
|
Contributors and further information:
- Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
|
Human activity
Human activity
| Focus:
|
The human activities that have impact on the climate system
|
| Scope:
|
Spatially from local to global
|
| Description:
|
|
| Inputs:
|
Input variables:
*#Human population
*#World politics
|
| Index:
|
Dimensions:
- Land use
- Emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere
|
| Definition:
|
|
| Unit:
|
|
| Result:
|
|
| References:
|
Contributors:
- Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat x.x.2006
- Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Heslingin Sanomat 3.7.2006
|
Composition of the atmosphere
Composition of the atmosphere
| Focus:
|
The gases and airborne particulate matter that affect the greenhouse effect
|
| Scope:
|
|
| Description:
|
|
| Inputs:
|
Input variables:
|
| Index:
|
Dimensions:
- CO2 concentration
- H2O concentration (+cloud formation)
- Other greenhouse gases
|
| Definition:
|
|
| Unit:
|
|
| Result:
|
|
| References:
|
Contributors:
- Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat x.x.2006
- Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Helsingin Sanomat 3.7.2006
- Jarl R. Ahlbeck, Ilmasto muttuu 4, Helsingin Sanomat 5.7.2006
|
Reflected solar radiation
Reflected solar radiation
| Focus:
|
The sunlight that is reflected back to the space from the atmosphere and Earth surface
|
| Scope:
|
|
| Description:
|
|
| Inputs:
|
Input variables:
|
| Index:
|
|
| Definition:
|
|
| Unit:
|
|
| Result:
|
|
| References:
|
Contributors:
- Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Helsingin Sanomat 3.7.2006
- Jarl R. Ahlbeck, Ilmasto muttuu 4, Helsingin Sanomat 5.7.2006
|
Absorbed energy
Absorbed energy
| Focus:
|
The total energy that is absorbed to the climatic system of the Earth in various forms
|
| Scope:
|
|
| Description:
|
|
| Inputs:
|
Input variables:
|
| Index:
|
|
| Definition:
|
|
| Unit:
|
|
| Result:
|
|
| References:
|
Contributors:
- Markku Wilenius, Ilmasto muuttuu 5, Helsingin Sanomat 7.7.2006
|
Heat transfer
Heat transfer
| Focus:
|
Transfer of heat
|
| Scope:
|
Horizontally happening heat transfer that evens the temperature differences on the globe.
|
| Description:
|
|
| Inputs:
|
Input variables:
|
| Index:
|
Dimensions:
|
| Definition:
|
|
| Unit:
|
|
| Result:
|
|
| References:
|
Contributors:
- Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
|
Climate
Climate
| Focus:
|
The phenomena that are together commonly perceived as climate
|
| Scope:
|
Temporal variation from minutes (weather) to > 105 years, spatial variation from very local to global.
|
| Description:
|
Distributions of different factors and especially the extreme phenomena are of greatest interest.
|
| Inputs:
|
Input variables:
|
| Index:
|
Dimensions:
- Temperature
- Humidity
- Wind (speed and direction)
- Precipitation (amount and type)
|
| Definition:
|
|
| Unit:
|
|
| Result:
|
|
| References:
|
Contributors:
- Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
- Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat x.x.2006
- Esko kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Helsingin Sanomat 3.7.2006
- Jarl R. Ahlbeck, Ilmasto muttuu 4, Helsingin Sanomat 5.7.2006
|
