Climate change: Difference between revisions
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This page contains a description of causes and effects of what is commonly referred to as climate using the Pyrkilo method. The data used in this assessment is composed of 10 climate change related articles by 10 invited experts published in Helsingin Sanomat during Summer 2006. | This page contains a description of causes and effects of what is commonly referred to as climate using the Pyrkilo method. The data used in this assessment is composed of 10 climate change related articles by 10 invited experts published in Helsingin Sanomat during Summer 2006. | ||
The description currently only includes the | The description currently only includes the variables that are upstream from climate variable. | ||
The | The downstream-side of the description will be added later. | ||
== Focus of the description == | == Focus of the description == | ||
# Base-level focus: to describe the causes and effects of climate as a compilation of the contributions of the 10 writers | # Base-level focus: to describe the causes and effects of climate as a compilation of the contributions of the 10 writers | ||
# Meta-level focus: to try the applicability of pyrkilo method for describing such a complex | # Meta-level focus: to try the applicability of pyrkilo method for describing such a complex issue as a net of variables | ||
== Scope of the description == | == Scope of the description == | ||
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* The spatial scope is primarily global, but some phenomena are also considered on regional and local scopes as well | * The spatial scope is primarily global, but some phenomena are also considered on regional and local scopes as well | ||
* The temporal scope of different contributors varies approximately within the orders of 10<sup>1</sup> to 10<sup>5</sup> years | * The temporal scope of different variables by different contributors varies approximately within the orders of 10<sup>1</sup> to 10<sup>5</sup> years | ||
* All causes and effects of climate change mentioned in the articles are considered | * All causes and effects of climate change mentioned in the articles are considered | ||
== Moderator == | == Moderator == | ||
Mikko Pohjola [[User:Mikko Pohjola|Mikko]] | Mikko Pohjola --[[User:Mikko Pohjola|Mikko]] | ||
== Causal chain diagram == | == Causal chain diagram == | ||
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Focus = The radiation output of sun | | Focus = The radiation output of sun | | ||
Scope = Variations in the output happen in the scope of approximately 10<sup>1</sup> years. As a source of energy, sun can be considered as continuous within the scope of the whole assessment. | | Scope = Variations in the output happen in the scope of approximately 10<sup>1</sup> years. As a source of energy, sun can be considered as continuous within the scope of the whole assessment. | | ||
Description = | Description = | | ||
Inputs = | | Inputs = | | ||
Index = | | Index = | | ||
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Result = | | Result = | | ||
References = Contributors: | References = Contributors: | ||
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006 | | *Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006 | ||
*Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat x.x.2006 | | |||
}} | }} | ||
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Description = Based on Milankovich's astronomical theory of climate change, complemented with orbital inclination. | | Description = Based on Milankovich's astronomical theory of climate change, complemented with orbital inclination. | | ||
Inputs = | | Inputs = | | ||
Index = | Index = Dimensions: | ||
*Orbital shape | *Orbital shape | ||
*Axial tilt | *Axial tilt | ||
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Unit = | | Unit = | | ||
Result = | | Result = | | ||
References = Contributors | References = Contributors: | ||
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006 | *Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006 | | ||
}} | }} | ||
=== | === Volcanic activity === | ||
{{Var| | {{Var| | ||
Name = | Name = Volcanic activity | | ||
Focus = | Focus = The heat producing processes that take place inside the Earth's core | | ||
Scope = | | Scope = | | ||
Description = | | Description = | | ||
Inputs = | | Inputs = | | ||
Index = | Index = Dimensions: | ||
*Volcano eruptions | |||
*Movement of tectonic plates | | |||
Definition = | | Definition = | | ||
Unit = | | Unit = | | ||
Result = | | Result = | | ||
References = Contributors: | References = Contributors: | ||
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006 | | *Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006 | ||
*Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat x.x.2006 | | |||
}} | }} | ||
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Name = Earth surface | | Name = Earth surface | | ||
Focus = Composition of the surface layer of the Earth | | Focus = Composition of the surface layer of the Earth | | ||
Scope = Distribution of land and water areas, vertical variation of the land areas, distribution of | Scope = Distribution of land and water areas, vertical variation of the land areas, distribution of biota on the land areas and in the water areas. | | ||
Description = | | Description = | | ||
Inputs = Input variables: | Inputs = Input variables: | ||
*[[# | *[[#Volcanic activity]] | ||
*[[#Human | *[[#Human activity]] | | ||
Index = Dimensions: | Index = Dimensions: | ||
*Land | *Land | ||
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*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006 | *Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006 | ||
*Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Heslingin Sanomat 3.7.2006 | | *Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Heslingin Sanomat 3.7.2006 | | ||
}} | }} | ||
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{{Var| | {{Var| | ||
Name = Weathering | | Name = Weathering | | ||
Focus = The slow | Focus = The slow erosion of rocks | | ||
Scope = | | Scope = | | ||
Description = The weathering slowly decreases the amount of CO<sub>2</sub> in the atmosphere. | | Description = The weathering slowly decreases the amount of CO<sub>2</sub> in the atmosphere. | | ||
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Scope = Spatially from local to global | | Scope = Spatially from local to global | | ||
Description = | | Description = | | ||
Inputs = | | Inputs = Input variables: | ||
[[*#Human population]]<br> | |||
[[*#World politics]]| | |||
Index = Dimensions: | Index = Dimensions: | ||
*Land use | *Land use | ||
*Emissions to the atmosphere | | *Emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere | | ||
Definition = | | Definition = | | ||
Unit = | | Unit = | | ||
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{{Var| | {{Var| | ||
Name = Composition of the atmosphere | | Name = Composition of the atmosphere | | ||
Focus | Focus = The gases and airborne particulate matter that affect the greenhouse effect| | ||
Scope = | | |||
Description = | | Description = | | ||
Inputs = Input variables: | Inputs = Input variables: | ||
*[[#Human activity]] | *[[#Human activity]] | ||
*[[#Weathering]]| | *[[#Weathering]] | ||
Index = | | *[[#Earth surface]]| | ||
Index = Dimensions: | |||
*CO<sub>2</sub> concentration | |||
*H<sub>2</sub>O concentration (+cloud formation) | |||
*Other greenhouse gases | | |||
Definition = | | Definition = | | ||
Unit = | | Unit = | | ||
Result = | | Result = | | ||
References = Contributors: | References = Contributors: | ||
*Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat x.x.2006 | *Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat x.x.2006 | ||
*Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, | *Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Helsingin Sanomat 3.7.2006 | ||
*Jarl R. Ahlbeck, Ilmasto muttuu 4, Helsingin Sanomat 5.7.2006 | | |||
}} | }} | ||
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Unit = | | Unit = | | ||
Result = | | Result = | | ||
References = | | References = Contributors: | ||
*Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Helsingin Sanomat 3.7.2006 | |||
*Jarl R. Ahlbeck, Ilmasto muttuu 4, Helsingin Sanomat 5.7.2006 | | |||
}} | }} | ||
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Unit = | | Unit = | | ||
Result = | | Result = | | ||
References = | | References = Contributors: | ||
*Markku Wilenius, Ilmasto muuttuu 5, Helsingin Sanomat 7.7.2006| | |||
}} | }} | ||
=== | === Heat transfer === | ||
{{Var| | {{Var| | ||
Name = | Name = Heat transfer | | ||
Focus =Transfer of | Focus = Transfer of heat | | ||
Scope = | | Scope = Horizontally happening heat transfer that evens the temperature differences on the globe. | | ||
Description = | | Description = | | ||
Inputs = Input variables: | Inputs = Input variables: | ||
*[[#Air flows | *[[#Earth surface]] | | ||
* | Index = Dimensions: | ||
*Air flows | |||
*Sea currents | | |||
Definition = | | Definition = | | ||
Unit = | | Unit = | | ||
Result = | | Result = | | ||
References = | | References = Contributors: | ||
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006 | | |||
}} | }} | ||
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Focus = The phenomena that are together commonly perceived as climate | | Focus = The phenomena that are together commonly perceived as climate | | ||
Scope = Temporal variation from minutes (weather) to > 10<sup>5</sup> years, spatial variation from very local to global. | | Scope = Temporal variation from minutes (weather) to > 10<sup>5</sup> years, spatial variation from very local to global. | | ||
Description = | | Description = Distributions of different factors and especially the extreme phenomena are of greatest interest. | | ||
Inputs = Input variables: | Inputs = Input variables: | ||
*[[#Absorbed energy]] | *[[#Absorbed energy]] | ||
*[[# | *[[#Heat transfer]] | | ||
Index = Dimensions: | Index = Dimensions: | ||
*Temperature | *Temperature | ||
*Humidity | *Humidity | ||
*Wind (speed and direction) | *Wind (speed and direction) | ||
*Precipitation (amount and type) | *Precipitation (amount and type) | | ||
Definition = | | Definition = | | ||
Unit = | | Unit = | | ||
Result = | | Result = | | ||
References = | | References = Contributors: | ||
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006 | |||
*Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat x.x.2006 | |||
*Esko kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Helsingin Sanomat 3.7.2006 | |||
*Jarl R. Ahlbeck, Ilmasto muttuu 4, Helsingin Sanomat 5.7.2006 | | |||
}} | }} | ||
Revision as of 01:26, 17 November 2006
This page contains a description of causes and effects of what is commonly referred to as climate using the Pyrkilo method. The data used in this assessment is composed of 10 climate change related articles by 10 invited experts published in Helsingin Sanomat during Summer 2006.
The description currently only includes the variables that are upstream from climate variable. The downstream-side of the description will be added later.
Focus of the description
- Base-level focus: to describe the causes and effects of climate as a compilation of the contributions of the 10 writers
- Meta-level focus: to try the applicability of pyrkilo method for describing such a complex issue as a net of variables
Scope of the description
All input from all of the 10 writers are accepted as contributions. In addition, the moderator of the exercise has the right to include additonal material where needed to make implicit issues explicit, to fill in important gaps if they shall exist and to make the overall description coherent.
- The spatial scope is primarily global, but some phenomena are also considered on regional and local scopes as well
- The temporal scope of different variables by different contributors varies approximately within the orders of 101 to 105 years
- All causes and effects of climate change mentioned in the articles are considered
Moderator
Mikko Pohjola --Mikko
Causal chain diagram
(The graph currently showing is outdated)
Variable descriptions
Solar activity
Solar activity
Earth's positioning in relation to sun
Earth's positioning in relation to sun
Solar energy input
Energy input
Volcanic activity
Volcanic activity
Earth surface
Earth surface
Weathering
Weathering
Human activity
Human activity
Composition of the atmosphere
Composition of the atmosphere
Reflected solar radiation
Reflected solar radiation
Absorbed energy
Absorbed energy
Heat transfer
Heat transfer
Climate
Climate