Climate change: Difference between revisions

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This page contains an assessment of the health effects of climate change using the Pyrkilo method. The data used in this assessment is composed of climate change related articles published in Helsingin Sanomat during Summer 2006, a series of invited "vieraskynä" -articles as its core.
This page contains a description of causes and effects of what is commonly referred to as climate using the Pyrkilo method. The data used in this assessment is composed of 10 climate change related articles by 10 invited experts published in Helsingin Sanomat during Summer 2006.


'''The assessment is in draft phase and comments and contribution of everyone interested is very welcome!'''
The description currently only includes the causes of climate.
The effects side of the description will be added later.


Before moving any further in making any more detailed specifications etc., it is better to consider a little bit what is this climate we are talking about.
== Focus of the description ==


According to Encyclopaedia Britannica, climate is:
# Base-level focus: to describe the causes and effects of climate as a compilation of the contributions of the 10 writers
# Meta-level focus: to try the applicability of pyrkilo method for describing such a complex web of phenomena


"Conditions of the atmosphere at a particular location over a long period of time; it is the long-term summation of the atmospheric elements (and their variations) that, over short time periods, constitute weather. These elements are solar radiation, temperature, humidity, precipitation (type, frequency, and amount), atmospheric pressure, and wind (speed and direction)."<br>
== Scope of the description ==
(Encyclopaedia Britannica Online, http://search.eb.com/eb/article-9106248, 13.7.2006)


"Nevertheless, it is reasonable to try to answer the question “Why does climate vary?” To do so, the nature of climate must be considered:
All input from all of the 10 writers are accepted as contributions. In addition, the moderator of the exercise has the right to include additonal material where needed to make implicit issues explicit, to fill in important gaps if they shall exist and to make the overall description coherent.


(1) Climate is best described as the prevailing, and hence expected, sequence of states of the atmosphere (loosely, weather) at a given locality. This definition can be extended to cover regions, hemispheres, or even the entire globe. Climatic change is the shift of this sequence to some new apparently lasting state.<br>
* The spatial scope is primarily global, but some phenomena are also considered on regional and local scopes as well
(2) The perceived scope of climate has recently been broadened to include a wider range of measurable parameters (e.g., humidity, particle load, ionization, cloud regime, salinity) and to extend over the entire depth and height of the lower atmosphere as well as the surface layers of the ocean.<br>
* The temporal scope of different contributors varies approximately within the orders of 10<sup>1</sup> to 10<sup>5</sup> years
(3) Climate may be viewed as part of a larger climatic system, an idea closely related to that of ecosystem. Thus, climate pervades not only the atmosphere and ocean but also the soil, ice masses, lakes and rivers, and the living cover of the Earth—all of which interact with the Sun-driven climate of the atmosphere.<br>
* All causes and effects of climate change mentioned in the articles are considered
(4) The atmosphere and ocean behave in part as chaotic systems. Although they obey well-known laws, they respond to the laws in a bewilderingly complex way. In spite, for example, of reliably periodic forcing by the Sun and tides, the sea and air appear never to repeat themselves precisely, showing instead a preference for nonperiodic behaviour. Tiny events—in principle even the batting of a butterfly's wings—can amplify into consequences that simply cannot be predicted from the known governing laws."<br>
(Encyclopaedia Britannica Online, http://search.eb.com/eb/article-53335 2.8.2006)


== Moderator ==


== Focus ==
Mikko Pohjola [[User:Mikko Pohjola|Mikko]] 17:30, 16 November 2006 (EET)
# Base-level focus: to describe climate change (as a compilation of all the accepted writers contributions)
# Meta-level focus: to use the PYRKILO method and monitor, evaluate and report both the process and its results


== Scope ==
== Causal chain diagram ==


All the input of all 10 writers accepted as the contributors of this study, added with the right of the moderator to include additonal  material in order to make implicit issues explicit whenever necessary and to make the overall picture complete.
(The graph currently showing is outdated)


In relation to describing the phenomena of climate change this means that:
[[Image:Climate_variable_chart.PNG]]
* The spatial scope is chosen to be global, narrowed down to regional and local scopes as necessary
* The temporal scope is primarily <10<sup>3</sup> years, but it must be noticed that some variables affecting the climatic system may vary in timescales much longer than that, although the effects may take place within the limits of the scope
* All mentioned effects of climate change are considered
* The assessment covers whole human population, narrowed down regionally/locally as necessary
* Health effects are divided into direct climate induced health effects, e.g. accidents & psychological effects and indirect biota mediated climate induced health effects, e.g. infections, nutritional problems etc.
* All mentioned cause affecting climate are considered
 
== Main indicators ==
 
The following variables have been mentioned as important indicators by the contributors:


* global average temperature
== Variable descriptions ==
* CO<sub>2</sub> content in atmosphere
* average temperature of surface waters in big oceans
* sea surface levels
* sizes of polar and mountain glaciers
* start/end times of annual snow/ice covered/free periods in arctic areas
* emissions/content of other greenhouse gases to/in atmosphere


== Causal chain ==
=== Solar activity ===
 
[[Image:Climate_variable_chart.PNG]]
 
==Solar activity==


{{Var|
{{Var|
Name = Solar activity |
Name = Solar activity |
Focus = The radiation output of sun |
Focus = The radiation output of sun |
Scope = Temporally in the order of 10<sup>1</sup> years|
Scope = Variations in the output happen in the scope of approximately 10<sup>1</sup> years. As a source of energy, sun can be considered as continuous within the scope of the whole assessment. |  
Description = |
Description = The solar radiation emitted from the sun |
Inputs = |
Inputs = |
Index = |
Index = |
Line 63: Line 41:
Unit = |
Unit = |
Result = |
Result = |
References = |
Reference = Contributors:
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006 |
}}
}}


==Earth's positioning in relation to sun==
=== Earth's positioning in relation to sun ===


{{Var|
{{Var|
Name = Earth's positioning in relation to sun |
Name = Earth's positioning in relation to sun |
Focus = The distance from sun and alignment of Earth |
Focus = The distance from sun and alignment of Earth |
Scope = Temporally in the order of 10<sup>5</sup>-10<sup>6</sup> years |
Scope = Temporally in the order of 10<sup>4</sup>-10<sup>5</sup> years |
Description = Based on Milankovich's astronomical theory of climate change |
Description = Based on Milankovich's astronomical theory of climate change, complemented with orbital inclination. |
Inputs = |
Inputs = |
Index = Subvariables:
Index = DImensions:
*Orbital shape
*Orbital shape
*Axial tilt
*Axial tilt
Line 82: Line 61:
Unit = |
Unit = |
Result = |
Result = |
References = Reference and further information:
References = Contributors and other sources of information:
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006.
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles About Milankovich's astronomical theory of climate change] |
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles About Milankovich's astronomical theory of climate change] |
}}
}}


==Energy input==
=== Solar energy input ===


{{Var|
{{Var|
Name = Energy input |
Name = Energy input |
Focus = The energy of the solar radiation that meets the outer boundaries of Earth |
Focus = The amount of energy as solar radiation that enters the Earth's climatic system |
Scope = Global spatiotemporal distribution |
Scope = Global spatiotemporal distribution |
Description = |
Description = |
Line 98: Line 77:
*[[#Earth's positioning in relation to sun]] |
*[[#Earth's positioning in relation to sun]] |
Index = |
Index = |
Definition = |
Unit = W/m<sup>2</sup>|
Result = 342 ± x|
References = |
}}
==Volcanic activity==
{{Var|
Name = Volcanic activity |
Focus = The volcanic and tectonic activity, driven by the heat producing processes in the earth's core |
Scope = |
Description = |
Inputs = |
Index = Subvariables:
*Volcanic eruptions
*Movement of tectonic plates |
Definition = |
Definition = |
Unit = |
Unit = |
Result = |
Result = |
References = |
References = Contributors and others sources of information:
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
*Ilmasto, jne. (kirja)  |
}}
}}


==Human activity==
=== Movement of tectonic plates ===


{{Var|
{{Var|
Name = Human activity |
Name = Movement of tectonic plates |
Focus = The human activities that have impact on the climate system |
Focus = Movement of tectonic plates |
Scope = Spatially from local to global |
Scope = |
Description = |
Description = |
Inputs = |
Inputs = |
Index = Subvariables:
Index = |
*Industry
*Consumption
*Transportation
*Land use |
Definition = |
Definition = |
Unit = |
Unit = |
Result = |
Result = |
References = |
References = Contributors:
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006 |
}}
}}


==Earth surface==
=== Earth surface ===


{{Var|
{{Var|
Name = Earth surface |
Name = Earth surface |
Focus = The spatiotemporal distribution of the surface layer of the Earth |
Focus = Composition of the surface layer of the Earth |
Scope = |
Scope = Distribution of land and water areas, vertical variation of the land areas, distribution of vegetation on the land areas. |
Description = |
Description = |
Inputs = Input variables:
Inputs = Input variables:
*[[#Volcanic activity]]
*[[#Movement of tectonic plates]]
*[[#Human activity]] |
*[[#Human activities]] |
Index = Subvariables:
Index = Dimensions:
*Land
*Land
*Sea
*Sea
*Vegetation |
*Biota |
Definition = |
Definition = |
Unit = |
Unit = |
Result = |
Result = |
References = |
References = Contributors:
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
*Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Heslingin Sanomat 3.7.2006 |
}}
}}


==Atmosphere==
=== Airflows ===


{{Var|
{{Var|
Name = Atmosphere |
Name = Airflows |
Focus = The composition of the atmosphere |
Focus = Movements of air masses in the atmosphere |
Scope = |
Scope = |
Description = The components that are significant in relation to greenhouse effect and climate |
Description = |
Inputs = Input variables:
Inputs = Input variables:
*[[#Volcanic activity]]
*[[#Human activity]]
*[[#Earth surface]] |
*[[#Earth surface]] |
Index = Subvariables:
Index = |
*CO<sub>2</sub>
*H<sub>2</sub>O
*CH<sub>4</sub>
*N<sub>2</sub>O
*HFC
*PFC
*Other |
Definition = |
Definition = |
Unit = |
Unit = |
Result = |
Result = |
References = |
References = Contributors:
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006 |
}}
}}


==Reflected solar radiation==
=== Sea currents ===


{{Var|
{{Var|
Name = Reflected solar radiation |
Name = Sea currents |
Focus = The sunlight that is reflected back to the space from the atmosphere and Earth surface |
Focus = |
Scope = |
Scope = |
Description = |
Description = |
Inputs = Input variables:
Inputs = Input variables:
*[[#Earth surface]]
*[[#Earth surface]] |
*[[#Atmosphere]] |
Index = |
Index = |
Definition = |
Definition = |
Unit = |
Unit = |
Result = |
Result = |
References = |
References = Contributors:
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006 |
}}
}}


==Absorbed energy==
=== Weathering ===


{{Var|
{{Var|
Name = Absorbed energy |
Name = Weathering |
Focus = The energy that is absorbed to the climatic system of the Earth in various forms |
Focus = The slow continental erosion of rocks |
Scope = |
Scope = |
Description = |
Description = The weathering slowly decreases the amount of CO<sub>2</sub> in the atmosphere. |
Inputs = |
Inputs = Input variables:
Index = |
*[[#Earth surface]] |
Index = |
Definition = |
Definition = |
Unit = |
Unit = |
Result = |
Result = |
References = |
References = Contributors and further information:
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006 |
}}
}}


==Climate==
=== Human activity ===


{{Var|
{{Var|
Name = Climate |
Name = Human activity |
Focus = The spatially and temporally distributed manifestations of the energy that is absorbed in the climatic system of the Earth|
Focus = The human activities that have impact on the climate system |
Scope = |
Scope = Spatially from local to global |
Description = |
Description = |
Inputs = |
Inputs = |
Index = Subvariables:
Index = Dimensions:
*Temperature
*Land use
*Humidity
*Emissions to the atmosphere |
*Wind (speed and direction)
*intensity of solar radiation
*Precipitation
*Air pressure
*Flows (air & water) |
Definition = |
Definition = |
Unit = |
Unit = |
Result = |
Result = |
References = |
References = Contributors:
*Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat x.x.2006
*Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Heslingin Sanomat 3.7.2006 |
}}
}}


==Biota==
=== Composition of the atmosphere ===


{{Var|
{{Var|
Name = Biota |
Name = Composition of the atmosphere |
Focus = The distribution of different kinds of organisms on Earth |
Focus = |
Scope = |
Scope = The gases and airborne particulate matter that affect the greenhouse effect |
Description = |
Description = |
Inputs = Input variables:
Inputs = Input variables:
*[[#Climate]] |
*[[#Human activity]]  
Index = Subvariables:
*[[#Weathering]]|
*Microbes
*Crops
*Livestock
*Game
*Seafood
*Fungus
*Other flora
*Other fauna
*Other |
Definition = |
Unit = |
Result = |
References = |
}}
 
==Infrastructure==
 
{{Var|
Name = Infrastructure |
Focus = |
Scope = |
Description = |
Inputs = |
Index = |
Index = |
Definition = |
Definition = |
Unit = |
Unit = |
Result = |
Result = |
References = |
References = Contributors:
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
*Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat x.x.2006
*Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Heslingin Sanomat 3.7.2006 |
}}
}}


==Livelihood==
=== Reflected solar radiation ===


{{Var|
{{Var|
Name = Livelihood |
Name = Reflected solar radiation |
Focus = The livelihood based on farming, forestry, fishing etc. |
Focus = The sunlight that is reflected back to the space from the atmosphere and Earth surface |
Scope = |
Scope = |
Description = |
Description = |
Inputs = |
Inputs = Input variables:
*[[#Earth surface]]
*[[#Composition of the atmosphere]] |
Index = |
Index = |
Definition = |
Definition = |
Line 295: Line 230:
}}
}}


==Migration==
=== Absorbed energy ===


{{Var|
{{Var|
Name = Migration |
Name = Absorbed energy |
Focus = |
Focus = The total energy that is absorbed to the climatic system of the Earth in various forms |
Scope = |
Scope = |
Description = |
Description = |
Inputs = |
Inputs = Input variables:
Index = |
*[[#Reflected solar radiation]]
*[[#Composition of the atmosphere]] |
Index = |
Definition = |
Definition = |
Unit = |
Unit = |
Line 310: Line 247:
}}
}}


==Direct health effects==
=== Energy transfer ===


{{Var|
{{Var|
Name = Direct heatth effects |
Name = Energy transfer |
Focus = |
Focus =Transfer of the energy (mainly as heat) |
Scope = |
Scope = |
Description = |
Description = |
Inputs = |
Inputs = Input variables:
*[[#Air flows]]
*[[#Sea currents]] |
Index = |
Index = |
Definition = |
Definition = |
Line 325: Line 264:
}}
}}


==Indirect health effects==
=== Climate ===


{{Var|
{{Var|
Name = Indirect health effects |
Name = Climate |
Focus = |
Focus = The phenomena that are together commonly perceived as climate |
Scope = |
Scope = Temporal variation from minutes (weather) to > 10<sup>5</sup> years, spatial variation from very local to global. |
Description = |
Description = |
Inputs = |
Inputs = Input variables:
Index = |
*[[#Absorbed energy]]
*[[#Energy transfer]] |
Index = Dimensions:
*Temperature
*Humidity
*Wind (speed and direction)
*Precipitation (amount and type
*Air pressure |
Definition = |
Definition = |
Unit = |
Unit = |

Revision as of 15:30, 16 November 2006

This page contains a description of causes and effects of what is commonly referred to as climate using the Pyrkilo method. The data used in this assessment is composed of 10 climate change related articles by 10 invited experts published in Helsingin Sanomat during Summer 2006. 

The description currently only includes the causes of climate.
The effects side of the description will be added later.

Focus of the description

  1. Base-level focus: to describe the causes and effects of climate as a compilation of the contributions of the 10 writers
  2. Meta-level focus: to try the applicability of pyrkilo method for describing such a complex web of phenomena

Scope of the description

All input from all of the 10 writers are accepted as contributions. In addition, the moderator of the exercise has the right to include additonal material where needed to make implicit issues explicit, to fill in important gaps if they shall exist and to make the overall description coherent.

  • The spatial scope is primarily global, but some phenomena are also considered on regional and local scopes as well
  • The temporal scope of different contributors varies approximately within the orders of 101 to 105 years
  • All causes and effects of climate change mentioned in the articles are considered

Moderator

Mikko Pohjola Mikko 17:30, 16 November 2006 (EET)

Causal chain diagram

(The graph currently showing is outdated)

Variable descriptions

Solar activity

Solar activity

Earth's positioning in relation to sun

Earth's positioning in relation to sun

Solar energy input

Energy input

Movement of tectonic plates

Movement of tectonic plates

Earth surface

Earth surface

Airflows

Airflows

Sea currents

Sea currents

Weathering

Weathering

Human activity

Human activity

Composition of the atmosphere

Composition of the atmosphere

Reflected solar radiation

Reflected solar radiation

Absorbed energy

Absorbed energy

Energy transfer

Energy transfer

Climate

Climate
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